Playoffs? Who Said Anything about Playoffs?

With just four weeks left in the regular season it's time to talk about playoffs whether the players and coaches want to or not. Mike Tomlin won't have to worry about any playoff discussion. Whatever slim chance the Steelers had of making the postseason went out the door with their horrendous touchdown-less loss to the Browns.

There are 17 teams (8 in the NFC, 9 in the AFC) that are still alive in the playoff hunt. In the NFC you have the Saints, Vikings, Cards, Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Giants and Falcons. In the AFC there's the Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets and Dolphins. I'm eliminating any seven-loss team from the race.

As interesting as the wildcard race should be, the division races may not be as suspenseful. The Saints and Colts have already clinched their respective divisions. The Vikings, Cardinals and Bengals all have commanding leads in their divisions. We didn't think there would be much competition for the Patriots in the AFC East. But all of a sudden things have gotten very interesting with the Pats losing three of four games. The Dolphins and Jets are just one game back and both split their season series with the Pats. However the Jets are in a tougher situation with a 2-4 division record. They will lose any tiebreaker with the Pats or Fins.

No one is talking about the AFC West race. It's almost as if everyone has assumed the Chargers have wrapped the division up. They are the hottest team in football not named the Colts or Saints but the Broncos lie just one game back. Denver has played much better the past couple weeks, reestablishing their running game. This may be the deciding week with the Broncos going to Indianapolis and the Chargers going to Dallas.

The most interesting division race will be the NFC East. I am waiting for the typical Cowboys choke job in December just like everyone else. This year it might not even be considered a choke job if it happens. The Cowboys have a brutal stretch to close the season starting with this week's game against San Diego. We very well could have a three-way tie for first after tomorrow's games if Dallas and Philly lose. Of course the Eagles are facing the Giants, who actually would have the tiebreaker as of now should this happen. But a loss would put them in serious trouble and all but out of the playoffs. On that note here are my picks for Week 14.

Vikings over Bengals
I think this will be a very close game and a really intriguing matchup. The Bengals have played very well on the road, beating teams like the Ravens, Steelers and Packers. But playing in the dome will get the usually high flying Vikings offense back on track. Expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson because I think he and the Vikings offensive line have something to prove.

Jaguars over Dolphins
This matchup involves the two quietest teams still in playoff contention. Hello everybody don't you realize that the Jaguars are 7-5 and the 6th seed in the AFC right now? I don't even think the city of Jacksonville knows. There might be more Miami fans in this standes even though it's in Jacksonville. I like the balance the Jags have on offense. Mercedes Lewis has stepped up as a  reliable target along with Mike Sims-Walker. But the key as always is to get the ball to Jones-Drew as much as possible. On the other side of the ball, I dont think Miami has the quality of receivers to burn the Jags weak secondary.

Colts over Broncos
The Broncos are almost as forgotten as the Jaguars after a 6-0 start that seemed like it occurred last season. I don't see any way a team not named the Chargers wins in Indianapolis this year. You think Peyton Manning cares that the Broncos secondary has more Pro Bowls than anyone else? He doesn't and he'll make them look like AARP members when the game is over.

Chargers over Cowboys
The team that never wins in December hosts the team that hasn't lost in the last four Decembers. I've been waiting for this Dallas defense to be exposed all season and it has continued to do a very good job. But the Chargers passing attack will finally make this secondary look bad. Antonio Gates has been a monster the past few weeks and LT is scoring TD like the good old days. Expect another tumultuous week in Big D this week.

Giants over Eagles
The Giants could actually be back in first place. It's hard to believe but I'm calling for it to happen. The Giants front four finally did something productive last week and I think they can build off of that in this game. Ultimately I think both of these teams will be in the playoffs and the Cowboys will be the ones sobbing on their couches at home in January.

That's all for now. Check out more from the Gridiron Guru next week.

49ers' Playoff Hopes Fade Away

A Season that Began with High Hopes Looks to be Ending in Disappointment

 During this offseason the two words that will be uttered the most around the 49ers clubhouse and throughout the city of San Francisco will be "What if". What if Brett Favre didn't throw that miracle last-second touchdown in Week 3? What if Alex Smith doesn't throw that ill-advised pass on the final drive against the Texans that was intercepted to end it? What if he didn't throw the two picks in the 4th quarter against Tennessee? What if the Niners found a way to hang on to that 4th quarter lead in Indianapolis? What if the defense found a way to stop the Packers in the final 5:30 in Lambeau and give the offense the ball back? Would they have been able to complete that 20 point comeback if they got that stop? What if Vernon Davis catches that touchdown pass late in last week's Seattle game and the Niners don't settle for a game-tying field goal? What if the Niners came into Monday night's matchup against the Cardinals with a chance to grab first place?

Unfortunately there are no answers to these questions and the "What ifs" will have to remain just that. It will be a tough offseason for this young team, a team that has yet to have the taste of playoff football. Barring some sort of miracle, the Niners will have to wait another year for that opportunity. Taking out their blowout loss to Atlanta, San Francisco lost their other 6 games by a total of 26 points. The 49ers were within one score in all six of those losses. It's simple...the 49ers just find ways to lose.

What's even more frustrating is that Mike Singletary preaches disciplined, tough football to this team. And then they play it for 45 minutes before folding when it matters most. Prime examples were the losses to Minnesota, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Or they'll come out totally flat and wake up sometime in the 2nd half when it's too late. This was the case in losses at Houston and Green Bay.

There might not be another team that can be as hot and cold in the course of one game. You'll see teams like Pittsburgh or Denver steamroll teams one week and then lose to awful teams the next. But how often do you see a team pull the Dr. Jekyll and Mr Hyde act during one game. This is what the offense does on a regular basis. And the defense certainly isn't the model of consistency. Good football teams find ways to overcome mistakes and make plays when there backs are against the wall. So if you put the pieces of the puzzle together...the Niners aren't a good football team, they just have the look of one at select, inconvenient times.

There is a lot of promise on this football team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Rookie Michael Crabtree missed training camp and the first five weeks of the regular season and has still played like a legitimate #1 wide receiver, catching 32 passes for 406 yards and a touchdown.. Wide receiver Josh Morgan is just in his second season and has played very well in this new spread offense and has been a great complement to Crabtree. These two young receivers could become one of the best tandems in the league in the future. Then there's Vernon Davis who has been the go-to receiver in this offense and maybe the best redzone tight end in the league this season. Davis leads the NFL with 10 TD receptions this season. He is a freak athlete, the most athletic of any tight end. No other tight end has his combination of strength (benches around 470 lbs), speed (ran a 4.38 at NFL combine) or his leaping ability (vertical jump of 42 inches). Gore is still just 26 years old and should be good for another 2 or 3 solid years, although he has dealt with numerous injuries over the past couple seasons.

The big decision in the offseason will be what to do with Alex Smith. The #1 overall pick in 2005 has been considered a bust until recently and after Week 4 it seemed certain that he would be gone after the season. He has surprised everyone with his play this year and there will be plenty of teams who could use him as a starter if the Niners don't hang on to him. Most likely Smith will remain a 49er, unless he tanks in the final four weeks of the season. I'm interested to see how he does under the bright spotlight on Monday Night. As well as Smith has played this year, he has still faded under pressure. As a 49er quarterback this isn't acceptable. This city is used to their leader rising to the occasion. Montana and Young were clutch performers. Smith is no Young or Montana, but he still has the potential to be better than he's been in big situations.

There is certainly plenty for this team to look back on and think about. And there's still a chance to make a mark this season with four more games on the schedule. The tough losses should serve as a learning experience for the team. After all, you have to experience failure before you can experience success. But for now they'll just have to stick with "What if?"

Vince Young, Drew Brees Dominate Week 12 Headlines

Young's Titanic Drive
As Matt Leinart watched Vince Young make a last-minute, remarkable drive on Sunday he must've had a serious case of deja vu. Of course a little under four years ago it was Young who led his Longhorns in the closing seconds to a game-winning touchdown that stole a third consecutive national title from Leinart and the USC Trojans.  This drive may not have been on as bright of a stage,  but it was even more impressive.

If you look at the situation the Titans were facing, it was almost impossible to have the odds stacked against them any more than they were. Tennesse started the drive from their own 1 with 2:37 remaining. They converted on fourth down three times on the drive, including the final play of the game and a 4th and 4 from their own 7.

Disregarding the fact that this was a regular season game, Vince Young's drive could be considered one of the best drives of all time. John Elway's famous drive against the Cleveland Browns in the 1987 AFC Championship game covered 98 yards but took over five minutes. Joe Montana's drive in Super Bowl XXIII was just 92 yards and took over three minutes. And neither of these drives resulted in touchdowns on the last play from scrimmage. For Vince Young to go 99 yards in two and a half minutes is incredible, especially for someone who's just a month removed from riding the bench.

Whatever doubts the Titans had toward Young being the franchise quarterback were silenced after Young's drive. He showed tremendous poise under immense pressure, mixing timely runs with crisp, accurate passes. I'm not really sure why the Titans were so fast to bench Young for Kerry Collins last season. Young has been a proven winner throughout his career. He won the national championship at Texas, and he took the Titans to the playoffs in 2007 But for some reason after a bad opening game and a minor mental breakdown last season the Titans gave up on him. Young has come back with a vengeance to silence his critics with his 5-0 record as a starter this season.

Young is proving that the era of the dual-threat quarterback isn't quite over. Across the league, we've seen the quarterback position retreat back to pocket passing for the most part. Not only are there no quarterbacks that can run as well as Young, there are very few that even deserve a running play called for them. Young has been criticized in the past for giving up on the pass and running too often . But thus far he's been perfect with how he's balanced the two. His ability to make plays with his feet is helping the Titans overcome a below-par receiving corps because defensive backs have to keep an eye on him at all times.

It's unlikely that Young and the Titans will run the table like they probably need to in order to make the playoffs. But at least the Titans know where to go with their future.

Saints Brees-ing by the Pats
It's weird but over the past couple weeks Drew Brees was sort of flying under the radar as the MVP talks shifted toward Favre and Manning. Brees changed that in a hurry with his performance last night against the overmatched Patriots. You could tell that Brees wanted to make a statement not only for his MVP chances, but for his career. He wants to be put on the same level as Manning, Brady and Favre. Outplaying Brady like he did on national television did a lot for his cause.

Sean Payton called this game like he wanted to make a statement also. On the first play of the game he attacked the Pats with a long pass play to Devery Henderson. He repeatedly went for big plays on the first play of a drive, which would immediately suck away any momentum the Pats had and ignite the raucous Superdome crowd. Payton outsmarted and humiliated Bill Belichick in this one. He even went for it on 4th down in the 2nd quarter as if to say "Yea, we can do that too." Payton was Belichick-esque in the way he exploited the Pats weaknesses.

Give a lot of credit to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as well. When have you ever seen Tom Brady look that out of sync? He also shut down Wes Welker to just 6 catches for 32 yards. The Saints defense was always there to stick Welker as soon as he caught the ball. It was a lot of fun to see the looks of pure frustration on the sidelines especially from Welker and Brady. I've never seen them so upset and confused.

After the Niners, the Saints are my favorite team. They're so explosive, versatile and exciting to watch. On any given play they can score, whether they're on offense, defense or special teams. But I think I like them even more because of their city and fans. After Hurricane Katrina, the city of New Orleans has rallied around this team. The passion these fans possess is unmatched around the league. The atmosphere of Saints' games is similar to that of a college game and the Superdome is easily the loudest stadium in the NFL. And then you see the fans stay after the game during ESPN's Monday night recap. I could barely even hear Stuart Scott talk over the "Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints?" How do you not love that?

But let's get back to Brees and his case for MVP. He's 1st in passer rating, 1st in passing TDs, 4th in completion percentage and 5th in yards. So statistically he's got the numbers right now. The biggest thing he's got going for him is that there are no true stars on his team. Don't get me wrong, his supporting cast is extremely talented collectively. But I don't know if there's another Pro-bowler on that offense. Manning has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Brady has Moss and Welker. Favre has Adrian Peterson. Brees makes everyone around him better, similar to Manning. Also, if the Saints go undefeated he has the "I'm the best player on the best team argument."

One of the problems for Brees (if you want to call this a problem) is that his team has been too dominant and hasn't really needed him to make a last minute drive or a huge comeback to win. This shows that the entire team is playing well enough to have most games sealed up by the fourth quarter. Favre and Manning have had to lead their teams on comebacks numerous times. And the other this is the turnovers. Brees has thrown 9 interceptions as opposed to Favre's 3. Manning has 11 picks but his play late in games has made most of us forget them. Right now I'm calling it a three-way tie but I feel like Manning is going to find a way to squeak it out. The entire world is in consensus that no one player is more important to their team than Manning.

Defending champs lose 3rd straight, in jeopardy of missing playoffs
This is unfamiliar territory for the Steelers. They've now lost 3 in a row and are on the outside looking in. A lot can be blamed on misfortune. Come this time of the year the best teams are usually the healthiest and the Steelers certainly aren't. Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers couldn't really attack this weak Ravens secondary. And without Troy Polamalu, the Steelers didn't have anyone to contain Ray Rice who exploded for 155 total yards.


Dennis Dixon played well considering he was thrown into as tough a situation a quarterback can face. But his inexperience finally caught up to haunt him when he threw the interception in overtime that put the Ravens in field goal range. Things should get better for the Steelers as they get Roethlisberger back and face the Raiders and Browns in the next two weeks. It's very likely that the next Ravens-Steelers matchup will determine the wildcard playoff teams in the AFC.

49ers are still alive
No one was a bigger fan of Vince Young than me on Sunday. The 49ers' season was hanging in the balance on every one of those 18 plays on that epic drive. The Cardinals' loss dropped them to 7-4 and just two games up on the Niners who are 5-6 after their win over Jacksonville. Now the Cardinals play host to the Vikings while the Niners travel to Seattle. If the Niners win and Cards lose there will be just a one game gap and the two will face each other next week on Monday night for the division lead. Things could get interesting in a hurry.

But the Niners better not look ahead and take Seattle for granted. Seattle is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. On Sunday, San Francisco played their most complete game since a Week 4 win over the Rams. I finally got to see the offense open things up and air it out. Alex Smith is so much better running the spread offense and finally the coaching staff has put him in a position to succeed. This offense has the potential to be very dangerous. Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan are a pretty good 1-2 receiver combo and have plenty of time to improve. Vernon Davis is a Pro-bowler and a go-to target in the redzone. And Frank Gore is continuing his success as a rusher and a receiver.

Smith got the ball into the hands of his play-makers often against the Jags. The one concern is the running game, which averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The offensive line is struggling to open up holes without Joe Staley and Tony Pashos. Running the spread is giving Smith just enough time to get rid of the ball though.

It's still clear that the Niners' secondary has some glaring weaknesses but I'm happy with how the defense held strong when the Jags got into the red zone. The defense did a great job in getting to David Garrard and forced two crucial fumbles. That is the kind of performance Mike Singletary has been hoping for and will need consistently in order for this team to make the playoffs.

Troubling Falcons overcome injuries to find a way to win.
Atlanta probably saved their season with their last second touchdown from Chris Redman to Roddy White to defeat the Bucs. But the joy of this win should be short-lived because Matt Ryan and Michael Turner won't be playing next week. Roddy White has been banged up as well and hasn't been nearly as effective as he was early on in the season. Redman played pretty well last week but it won't be easy for him against the Eagles next week. I just don't see this team being able to overcome all of these injuries and make the playoffs.