Week 11 Fantasy and Game Predictions

Will the Saints and Colts remain undefeated? Will the Patriots get revenge on the Jets and end the "Why did you go for it on 4th and 2" talks? Will the Chargers continue their hot streak and take the division lead? Will this playoff race get any clearer after this week? These are all questions that will be answered tomorrow. But I'll try my best to answer them now.

Here are my picks:

Colts over Ravens
The "Charm City Classic" matchup between the team that broke Baltimore's hearts against the team that has their hearts figures to be a pretty good matchup. The Ravens are better than their record says, losing by just 21 points in their four losses and winning big when they've won. It's surprising to see that the Ravens are favored in this one but I'm not buying them winning this one. Their defense is not what it used to be despite a deceiving shutout victory over Cleveland last week. Corners Fabian Washington and Domonique Foxworth have been getting burned for most of the season. Reggie Wayne is not who these guys want to see right now. Plus Peyton Manning is known to be a Raven-killer. Throw in the injury to Terrell Suggs and I just don't see the Ravens being able to stop this machine that is the Colts' offense.

Giants over Falcons
After a bye week and a lot of time to work on things and get healthy, I think the Giants will come out with a W. The Falcons are going to have to go without the heart of their offense, Michael Turner, who is out with an ankle injury. This will put even more pressure on Matt Ryan who is in a serious rut right now. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons defense isn't much  to brag about right now. I think Eli will get back on track as well.

Patriots over Jets
The Pats haven't lost two games in a row since 2006 when ironically they lost to the Colts and Jets in consecutive games. I don't see that happening again here. Tom Brady and the Pats offense have the most to prove with the way they were held in check in the last matchup between these two teams. Brady wasn't quite himself the last time they played the Jets but he is on top of his game now and will throw for over 300 yards once again.

Chargers over Broncos
Anyone that saw Chris Simms play last week knows that the Broncos are in serious trouble if he has to play in place of Kyle Orton. Orton is a gametime decision and won't be 100% if he does play. The formula to stop the Broncos in recent weeks has been stack up against the run and make Orton beat you in the passing game. (which hasn't happened). The Chargers are playing at their best right now which means even more trouble for this reeling Broncos team.

Eagles over Bears
Jay Cutler is playing in primetime football once again. You know what that means? Should be another epic choke job. In three primetime games this season, Cutler has thrown 11 picks. The Eagles will have to go a while with Lesean Mccoy as their starting running back with all the concussions to Brian Westbrook. I hope Westbrook will have a swift recovery but I'm not sure if it really matters who's in the backfield for Philly with as much as they've thrown the ball (Donovan McNabb threw it 55 times last week). For the Eagles this is almost a must-win game after losing two straight. I like them in this one, even on the road.

Fantasy Heroes
Brandon Jacobs  RB NYG
Jacobs has been disappointing fantasy owners this season, mainly because the Giants have been throwing the ball more than usual and Ahmad Bradshaw has been taking a lot of his carries. But the Falcons are ranked 25th in the NFL against the run. If the Giants were smart, they'd get back to their bread and butter and run the ball.


Beanie Wells RB ARI
Wells has started to come on lately but Cardinals fans are waiting for him to really break out. I think he'll get more carries than usual against the Rams, especially with all the garbage time. And that should mean a big day for big Beanie.

Roddy White WR ATL
I own White in both of my fantasy leagues and have been disappointed to see him not get into the end zone the past couple weeks. But he's always going to get plenty of targets. I think he'll score this week and put up big numbers because with Jason Snelling as the Falcons running back they are going to need to pass. The Giants secondary has been giving up big plays all year and might be seeing the back of White's jersey quite often.

Calvin Johnson WR DET
Calvin is back in the lineup now and has a very favorable matchup against the Browns this week. I am just waiting for the world to realize the immense talent that this kid has. I'm looking for a big game...maybe over 100 yards and a touchdown in this one.

Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Mendenhall has always been hit or miss in fantasy. Last week he got me 5 points. But this week is a different story when the Steelers face the Chiefs and I think Mendenhall will have an impressive performance.

Fantasy Zeroes 
Joseph Addai RB IND
The Ravens pass defense is pretty poor but their ability to stop the run is about the same as it's always been. Addai doesn't usually get more than 12 or 15 carries anyway. He may get a few catches but I don't think he will be able to continue the recent success.

Darren Sporles RB SD
We haven't seen a whole lot of Sproles in recent weeks because LT has been healthy and running well. Denver has a pretty good run defense anyway so I wouldn't expect him to touch the ball more than five times in this one.

Todd Heap TE BAL
Heap is only an average tight end at best this season. Now he faces a Colts' defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Ravens will probably look outside to their wideouts or to their biggest playmaker, Ray Rice.

Santana Moss WR WAS
I'm giving up on Moss now. I can't believe that he's the #1 receiver on this team with his pathetic numbers this season. The Skins need to give up on him as their big play guy and find some big receivers who can actually get open (not Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas).

Jay Cutler QB CHI
See above.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back to recap everything next week.
 



 

Week 10 Didn't Clear Anything Up For Us

After Week 10's action, the only thing that is solved is that the Colts are going to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and that Bill Belichick is borderline insane. The Colts have a two-game lead over the next best team in the AFC, the Bengals and now have a three-game lead over the usual powerhouses, New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego. I don't think its going out on the limb saying that they'll secure the #1 seed in the AFC.

As for the rest of the NFL...who knows? Here's a look at the playoff picture right now.

AFC
1. Indianapolis Colts 9-0
2. Cincinnati Bengals 7-2
3. Denver Broncos 6-3
4. New England Patriots 6-3
5. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3
6. San Diego Chargers 6-3

On the outside looking in: Baltimore Ravens (5-4), Houston Texans (5-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) Miami Dolphins (4-5), New York Jets (4-5)

The NFC playoff picture is even less clear:

1. New Orleans Saints 9-0
2. Minnesota Vikings 8-1
3. Dallas Cowboys 6-3
4. Arizona Cardinals 6-3
Four-way tie at 5-4: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants
Other teams on the outside looking in: San Francisco 49ers (4-5), Chicago Bears (4-5), Carolina Panthers (4-5)

Each week it appears to look more and more like we will see the Saints and Vikings face each other in the NFC Championship Game. Obviously it's way too early to know, but the inconsistency of everyone else in the NFC makes me feel were destined for a Saints-Vikings matchup. Both teams have all but clinched their respective divisions and should have plenty of time to rest and be perfectly healthy going into the playoffs.

Of course the NFC East is a mess right now. It seems like none of the teams even want to win this thing. It must've been nice for the Giants to have a bye and see both the Cowboys and Eagles lose. If it continues down this road, we may actually see the Redskins get back into the race. A Skins win over Dallas could have the entire D.C. area talking about the Super Bowl again. And I really don't want to hear that nonsense.

There are 7 NFC teams within a game of each other all battling for 2 playoff spots (of course some of these teams still have a good shot at winning their divisions as well). This is one jumbled-up playoff race.

Next week will be huge for these NFC wildcard hopefuls, with 6 of the 7 facing each other. The 49ers travel to Lambeau, the Eagles will face the Bears, and the Giants will host the Falcons.

In the AFC, the Bengals are in great shape to win the North with their season sweeps of the Steelers and Ravens. They'll be awarded three easy matchups for their hard work. Their next three games are against Oakland, Detroit and Cleveland.

The Patriots look to have a firm grasp on the AFC East, but if the Jets can somehow pull off another upset over the Pats this week things could get very interesting. A Jets win would pull them to within a game of the division lead and they'd have the tiebreaker over New England.

When people ask how the west was won they will probably look at this week's Chargers-Broncos matchup. These two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. Since the last time these two teams met the Chargers haven't lost and the Broncos haven't won. The health of Kyle Orton may go a long way in deciding this one.

So obviously nothing was cleared up from last week. But I'll try to clear things up with my projections for who will be in the postseason.

AFC
1. Colts
2. Patriots
3. Bengals
4. Chargers
5. Steelers
6. Chargers

NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Giants
4. 49ers
5. Eagles
6. Arizona

So let's start off with the AFC. I've already talked about how the Colts have locked up the top spot. The Patriots have a very favorable schedule and I think they'll move ahead of the Bengals for the 2nd seed. I'm not convinced on the Bengals yet and could very easily see the Steelers win the AFC North. But I like Cincy because of their tiebreaker and their next three games.

But down the line it will be much tougher with trips to Minnesota, San Diego and New York left on the schedule. The Chargers will complete yet another comeback over the Broncos and steal the division. I like the way the Chargers defense is playing, especially Shawn Merriman who is making a bit of a resurgence. Philip Rivers somehow seems to stay under the radar despite putting up big numbers week after week.

I do think the slipping Broncos will edge out the final wildcard spot. The Ravens schedule is just too tough and the Texans and Jaguars are a year away (I know people have been saying that about Houston for years).

In the NFC, there's no surprise as to who will be sitting out during the wildcard round of the playoffs. I think New Orleans will go 15-1 with their one loss coming to the Patriots in a couple weeks. I see the Vikings going 13-3, maybe 14-2 on the season.

Now it gets interesting. For some reason I just don't see the Cowboys winning the NFC East. They're too inconsistent. Case in point their pathetic offensive performance in Green Bay last week. I don't think this team takes care of the ball or plays smart enough to be a playoff team. The Giants are too talented to continue to play as bad as they have. I think they'll turn things around starting this week at home against Atlanta.

Now for my biggest surprise of them all...the 49ers. Yes, I'm biased but hear me out for a minute. After this week at Green Bay the schedule is pretty cake: Jacksonville, @ Seattle, Arizona, @ Philadelphia, Detroit, @ St. Louis. The Cardinals do look impressive right now but they have a three-game stretch where they play at Tennessee (a different team as of late), host Minnesota and then travel to San Francisco. The Monday night matchup between the Niners and Cards will probably determine what happens. But remember the Niners already defeated Arizona on the road, so they can definitely do it at home. And that would give them the tiebreaker...and I think these teams will be tied at the end of it all. With Frank Gore healthy and playing well and Alex Smith getting more acclimated with the offense I feel like the offense will turn it around

I have the Eagles and Cardinals as the two wildcards in whatever order. These two offenses are very explosive and make them dangerous in the postseason. For the teams left out, I think the Packers line is too weak and Aaron Rodgers will be lucky to finish the season. Matt Ryan is making in too many mistakes in his sophomore campaign and the Michael Turner injury will put even more pressure on Ryan. The Cowboys will find a way to choke as always.

I'm sure you won't find anyone else with these playoff projections. As the Gridiron Guru you gotta go out on the limb sometimes.

Belichick Gets Busted

Throughout Bill Belichick's career there has always been this aura of invincibility surrounding him. Common belief has said that you can't outsmart him. His play calling and decision-making has rarely been questioned, unless it was whether or not he was running up the score. And when a team beat his Pats, he usually found a way to adjust and return the favor the next time. But somewhere along the line the success of his team and his quarterback has gotten to his head and he thinks he can move the chains in any third or fourth down situation. Maybe last night's debacle in Indy will serve as a wake up call.

When I saw the Pats offense line up on that play the first thing that went through my mind as well as everyone else's mind had to be that they were just trying to draw the Colts' defense offside. I'm sitting there like "OK you're wasting your time time they won't jump...What?!! They're actually going through with it?". I originally thought Faulk's forward progress got him the first down on the catch. And even after watching the replay I still think he may have had the yardage necessary. Of course it's the Pats fault for not being able to challenge the play because they wasted all their timeouts just moments earlier.

I was really angry at the time because I thought Belichick had cost me my fantasy battle. At the time of the play I was up 7 points with Brady on my team but my opponent had Manning and Dallas Clark. Thank God the TD went to Reggie Wayne and not Clark...allowing me to escape with a three-point victory.

Now after the play I immediately thought that Belichick was trying to catch the Colts defense (who may have been expecting Brady to draw them offside) sitting on their heels because they would be trying so hard not to jump offside. Maybe Belichick thought that this moment of hesitation would allow them to get the two yards needed for the first down. Even if Belichick had this mindset I don't think it would've been the right decision, but at least it would've been a nifty thought and I'd have more respect for the decision. But it's clear that this didn't even cross his mind. He never mentioned it in either of his press conferences. He just thought he could gain two yards and seal the victory. His over-confidence came back to bite him.

This time the mad scientist was in way over his head. The chances of getting that first down are 50/50 at best...and when you have a six-point lead with two minutes remaining, the result of the game shouldn't be determined by a coin flip. When you make a decision you have to figure in the consequences and Belichick just flat out ignored them. Going against Peyton Manning probably had something to do with the decision to go for it. But that's also the reason not to go for it. Giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 30 yard line is like cutting your wrists and jumping in a shark tank...it's all over. At least if you punt and he gets it at his own 30 yard line you give your defense (which played pretty well for most of the game) a chance. Even with Manning behind center, it's not easy to go 70 yards in 2 minutes without a timeout. I don't think anyone ever made Manning feel better about himself than Belichick did last night.

As much of a compliment as it was to Manning, Belichick's decision was even more of an insult to his defense. Coming in to that game the Pats had the second best scoring defense (Colts are first) in the league! Instead Belichick threw them under the bus, forcing them to try and stop Manning and Co. on a short field. If I were on that Pats defense, I'd be pretty ticked off.

This may have been the best game we've seen between these two teams and it almost certainly will be considered the best game of the regular season. We got to see two hall of fame quarterbacks at the peak of their careers. The "Who's Better: Tom Brady of Peyton Manning" is probably the biggest debate in football and last night may have muddled it more for everyone. Personally, I'd take Manning. We also got to see maybe the two best wide receivers in football. Randy Moss and Wayne are 1-2 in receiving yards and probably both will be hall of famers as well (Moss is already a lock). We saw plenty of big plays, scoring, controversial calls, and an epic comeback. What more can you ask for?

The difference in this game was simply... clock management. The Colts were absolutely perfect in the way they used the clock during the 4th quarter. Down 34-21 with less than five minutes left they scored in just over two minutes. With all three timeouts left they were able to kick the ball away even though they lined up for an onside kick. They got the touchback which prevented any extra seconds from ticking off. And then they were able to call all three timeouts on defense before the two minute warning, giving them a chance even if the Pats had punted it away.

On the other side, the Pats were pathetic in managing the clock. They burned two timeouts on their four-and-out possession, one of those came before the first down play after the kick off. At the time it didn't seem like it mattered.  It was almost like Al Michaels had a sixth sense when he mentioned how this could really hurt the Pats. How right he was. Wasting those timeouts eventually prevented the Pats from challenging the 4th-and-2 play. And they couldn't stop the clock when the Colts were about to score. This gave Brady no time to try and mount a final drive of his own. In a game where both teams were pretty much dead even on offense, defense and special teams, it was clock management that proved to be the difference.

This heartbreaking loss cost the Pats any chance at home field advantage in the playoffs. The already-infamous 4th-and-2 play has already been talked about and shown more than Brett Favre's miracle TD pass over the Niners and is the most talked about play since Santonio Holmes' game-winning TD catch in last year's Super Bowl. The criticism of Belichick is ringing out everywhere. But Bill is so oblivious to the fans, media and anything that isn't between the front and back cover of his playbook that I don't think it'll affect him one bit. And I bet you if given the chance, he'd make that same wrong decision again.

That Wasn't How It Was Supposed To Go!

Do or die week pretty much ended in death for me. The 49ers blew a game against the Titans at home, putting their playoff hopes in serous jeopardy. The Titans had just picked up their first win the previous week, there's no explanation for losing to that team at home. Alex Smith threw two costly picks at the end of the game that led to Titan TDs. Everyone keeps saying that Mike Singletary made the right decision by going with Alex Smith over Shaun Hill at quarterback but I'm not convinced. They say he has a stronger arm and he's more mobile. Ok, he has thrown more TDs in two and a half games than Hill did in five and a half. But all I see is one important number...a big goose egg in the W column.

For all of Hill's deficiencies, he has done one thing in this league and that is win games. Hill was 3-3 as a starter this season, but I wouldn't blame him for the Atlanta loss where the defense just didn't show up ready to play. And in Houston, I realize that Hill didn't have a good first half but he still hadn't thrown any picks. The decision to bring in Smith looked like a great one when he came in and threw three second half TDs but people forgot that it was Smith who threw a costly interception on the Niners' last drive in that game that ended it. Smith keeps making costly mistakes at key points in games. The mistakes that Hill didn't make (Smith has more INTs than Hill this season).  I'm not saying that Smith needs to go back to the bench just yet. I just think people should look at other things besides touchdowns and yards when comparing these two. As a QB you need to win games to be successful.

And that ESPN Page 2 writer Gregg Easterbrook is a complete idiot for suggesting that Michael Crabtree is the reason why the Niners are on this losing streak (this article was on ESPN's front page yesterday http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091110&sportCat=nfl). Crabtree has already become the number one receiver in this offense and has finally given us a weapon to go to on the outside. And he hasn't said one word. I'm sorry Easterbrook but you don't know what the hell you're talking about.

Well my fantasy team lost as well, dropping me to 5-4 for the season and all but eliminating me from the running for the regular season or total points title. I had a pretty good week with Michael Turner and Tom Brady putting up pretty good numbers for me. But Roddy White did very little because of the Falcons big lead and Kevin Smith's injury kept him from getting enough touches to produce.

I did OK with my picks this week going 3-2...my first week with a winning record in quite some time. I made a nice call on the Cardinals over Bears upset. But it looks like I'm completely wrong about the NFC East, the Giants don't seems to be getting out of the rut they're in and the Cowboys aren't pulling their annual choke job...at least not yet. I'll say I got 1.5 of my 5 fantasy studs right (Ryan Grant, Matt Ryan). I'm still shocked that Green Bay's defense gave up 38 points and lost to the Bucs. I ended up doing better with my fantasy dud predictions getting 3 out of 5 right. Tony Romo took care of the ball much better than expected against the Eagles. And I was right that Hines Ward and Mike Wallace would have better fantasy days than Santonio Holmes, but Holmes still ended up with 93 yds (no TDs) so I can't say he was a dud.

Now for my High Five/Low Five

Best Teams
1. Indianapolis Colts- I don't care that they don't score as many points or beat their opponents by as much as the Saints. The Colts play defense and play it very well. They have allowed the least points per game in the league and have done it without their defensive MVP Bob Sanders who's now done for the year. What's new right? The past two games their offense hasn't been clicking the way it usually does, especially in the red zone. But the defense has come to the rescue both times. The defense can really prove something to the world if it shuts down Tom Brady & Co. this week.

2. New Orleans Saints- For the second time in three weeks the Saints overcome an early double-digit lead to win. The defense came up with another touchdown, their seventh of the season. That is more than the Raiders entire team has for the season and it's tied with the Browns! The one worry on this team has to be the rushing defense. They've allowed Michael Turner and Deangelo Williams to go off in consecutive weeks.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers- Up until the this week, no one has been talking about the defending champs. Their defense has been playing superbly, coming up with another TD against Denver and holding them to just 27 yards on the ground and forcing Kyle Orton to throw three picks (he had only thrown one all season and that was on a hail mary). The offense seems to clicking on both sides too. With their quality wins over Denver and Minnesota, I believe they are the third best team in the league and will be a force in the playoffs.

4. Minnesota Vikings- Since they lost to Pittsburgh I had to put them lower than the Steelers. But they very well could get their rematch with the Steelers in the Super Bowl. With all the flip-flopping in the NFC East it is definitely shaping up to at least look like a Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game.

5. New England Patriots- The Pats have taken advantage of a very favorable schedule over the past few weeks and the Tom Brady-isn't-the-same talks have been silenced. And after last week, the Where's Randy Moss? talks should be quieted as well. But let's see how good this team is this week when they travel to Indianapolis to face their old rivals. The Pats have a chance to eliminate both of the remaining unbeatens with the Saints looming on the schedule in a couple weeks. 

You may be wondering where the Bengals are on this list. I don't agree with their #4 ranking on ESPN's Power Rankings. I feel like they've caught a lot of lucky breaks in their wins, especially their first win over the Ravens. We'll see how they fare in Steeler Town. A win there will change my mind.

Five Worst Teams
1. Cleveland Browns- Their one win was a 6-3 triumph over Buffalo. I'm being extremely sarcastic with the word triumph. It really shouldn't be counted as a win if you don't score an offensive TD. In my book the Browns still are winless. This team is a complete embarrassment. ESPN should've tried to get a flex schedule for Monday Night Football so it could avoid showing what will be one of the worst debacles caught on TV when the Browns play the Ravens.

2. Detroit Lions- After the first few weeks of the season I thought the Lions were a decent football team. Of  course they always find a way to underachieve. Losing to the Rams at home is awful and almost placed them as my worst team in the NFL. Congrats Lions, you're only the second worst team in the league.

3. St. Louis Rams- Sunday's game against the Saints should be funnier than any South Park episode. Bet on the Saints now...the line is only 14. New Orleans should win by 50.

4. Tampa Bay- The Bucs have the best win of this bunch, a 10-point victory over the Packers. Maybe this kid, Josh Freeman is the franchise quarterback they've been looking for since...oh wait a minute the Bucs have never had a franchise QB. No, Brad Johnson doesn't count. Well at least they had hall-of-famer Steve Young as their QB for a brief time. Very brief.

5. Washington Redskins- I really don't see the Skins winning another game for the rest of the season. The only winnable one is at Oakland, but that's not easy considering Philly lost there. So the standard is set...you gotta be 2-14 or worse to get the first pick in next year's draft. I'm sure at least one of these team will do worse.

Five Worst NFL Broadcasters Currently on TV

Currently is the key word here because there are plenty more I'd like to add to the list including Emmitt Smith and Bryant Gumbel who were wisely let go.

1. Cris Collinsworth- To me it really doesn't matter if Collinsworth says anything intelligent or not. His voice is too annoying to listen to. And he laughs at his own corny sarcastic jokes. The world is really missing John Madden right now.

2. Keith Olbermann- I can't stand listening to him do highlights on NBC. His jokes are over everyone's head and the one's I do get aren't funny. And all he does is continue to make these jokes that get an uncomfortable silence from the other anchors who don't know how to react.

3. Tony Dungy- Stuttering Stanley!...Stuttering Stanley! It's hard to believe that this guy led a football team to a championship. He's so unauthoritative and can go through one sentence without stumbling. He looks uncomfortable and frightened on camera. What makes it worse is that Dungy, Olbermann and Collinsworth are all on NBC's coverage of Sunday Night Football. What a horrible combination.

4. Dan Dierdorf- Mr. Obvious has nothing intriguing to say and he doesn't belong on CBS's number two broadcast team.

5. Tony Siragusa- I'm not a big fan of how Fox uses the Goose on their broadcasts. They basically have him as a second color commentator and he'll talk during the play sometimes. Then they'll show him watching a monitor thats on the sideline instead of watching the action on the field when it's right in front of him. And I think he talks about food more than football when he's on the air.

MVP Candidates
1. Drew Brees- Brees continues to lead this offense of nobodies to success. Seriously, besides Reggie Bush, who isn't even one of the top options in this offense who highly touted coming out of college? Marques Colston...7th round draft pick,  Devery Henderson...2nd round pick who did  nothing before Brees came, Lance Moore...undrafted free agent. Brees has made these guys into great receivers and that's why he's the MVP of the league right now.

2. Peyton Manning- Brees and Manning really are 1A and 1B for MVP and may end up getting a split for the award. I give Brees the edge just because of Manning's performance the past couple weeks. He's only thrown one touchdown against two average defenses. And he has Dallas Clark, the best tight end in the league this year, and Reggie Wayne, probably the best receiver in the NFL this year.

3. Ben Roethlisberger- My top three MVP candidates come from the three best teams on my power rankings. Big Ben is probably the best QB in the league outside of the pocket. His ability to extend plays has won them games this season. With an on-off running game it's Roethlisberger the former game manager  who will lead this team to another division title.

4. Cedric Benson- He continues to carry the Bengals on his shoulders game after game. He averages almost 25 carries/game. That's the definition of being a workhorse.

5. Brett Favre- This team is practically the same from last year with the exception of Favre and the improvements on offense are immense. Similar to Brees, Favre has made a mediocre-at-best receiving corps look great. We haven't seen him make those patented gunslinger errors of the past either. But it's almost impossible to think he can be MVP with the best rusher in the game behind him and Manning and Brees having the great seasons they're having.

Best Players on Bad Teams

1. Maurice Jones-Drew- There is no player more important to their team's offense than Jones-Drew. He is so dynamic both running the ball and receiving out of the backfield. And for some reason the Jaguars still don't realize the importance of getting him enough touches.

2. Chris Johnson- CJ might be the fastest player in the league. The Titans aren't playing better because Vince Young is in the game...they are playing better because they are finally getting him the ball. He's averaging 6.7 yds/carry and has the most 40+ yard runs in the league. There is no stopping this guy.


3. Steven Jackson- I love the way he runs with his bruising style. He craves contact and injects fear into opposing linebackers even though his team doesn't inject fear into anybody.

4. DeAngelo Williams- Williams has really picked it up in recent weeks...rushing for 548 of his 768 yards in the past four weeks. He almost single-handedly gave the Panthers and upset over the Saints last week.

5. Calvin Johnson- I know he's barely seen the field this year and hasn't done much when he is in. But this guy is the most athletic receiver in the league and if he ever gets out of Detroit, he'll be the best in the league.

Check out the Gridiron Guru later on this week for Week 10 predictions.

Do or Die Week

So this week is do or die for me for many reasons. Number one, the 49ers face a must-win game at home against Tennessee. In their three consecutive losses the Niners have fought valiantly (at least in the last two) and fell just short. But there are no moral victories and close losses don't count for anything but an L. So the Niners need to prove they can pull out tough games. San Fran really should dominate in this game but the Titans have Vince Young and just picked up their first win so I'm not sure what to expect from them. I'll take a W anyway they can get it.

Next, it's do-or-die for me in fantasy. I'm 5-3 and facing the 2nd place team in the league. I should be able to make it to the six-team playoff but for me to have any realistic shot of winning the regular season title I need to win this one. Speaking of fantasy, you've gotta check out the new show on FX, The League. It's hilarious. You want to talk about guys that take fantasy football to the extreme. The show is about a group of friends with differing family situations, who are in a fantasy league together and use it as leverage in certain situations among each other. In one instance, two of the guys, who are lawyers, are in a prison cell with a man accused of robbing three liquor stores. One is trying to prosecute the man and the other is trying to defend him. The prosecution lawyer says he going to go for the maximum sentence of 10 years. They end up making a deal to drop it to five years if they switch first round draft picks in their fantasy league, giving the prosecution lawyer the first overall pick which would be access to Adrian Peterson. If you love sports, sexual jokes and debuachery this show is right up your alley.

Well finally it's do or die for me if I want to be considered the Gridiron Guru anymore. The past few weeks have been awful so it's time to step it up. So here are my predictions for Week 9:

Eagles over Cowboys
If you checked out my last blog post you already know that I like Philly in this one. There's no reason not to. The Eagles are at home. Their offense looks better than ever. Dallas has the 22nd ranked pass defense. Dallas has received too much media attention meaning too much pressure on the team.Philly leads the NFL in turnover margin and we know how Romo doesn't take very good care of the ball. And last but certainly not least, the Eagles know that all the attention is on them now that the Phillies have lost the world series, and they need to prevent this town from exploding.

Colts over Texans
This is the most important game in Texans' franchise history. Pretty sad to say that when it's only Week 9. I've seen people pick the Texans in this one but I'm not buying it. Peyton Manning probably treated this week's practices as if the Colts were coming off a loss. Manning didn't throw a TD last week against the 49ers and the team didn't even score one until the 4th quarter off a halfback pass from Joseph Addai. I think the Colts offense is a little upset and I don't see the Texans defense being able to stop Reggie Wayne (who can) or Dallas Clark right now.

Steelers over Broncos
I've learned this year how important a bye week is for a team and how tough it is beat a team coming off one. Pittsburgh will have had 15 days off to rest up for this game. I think Baltimore exposed some weaknesses in this Bronco team. They showed that if you can stuff the run against Denver that Kyle Orton will sometimes struggle to beat a team by himself. And a quarterback that can avoid sacks and extend the play can beat this Denver D. That's what Joe Flacco did, and it's what Ben Roethlisberger is known for. The Steelers are playing the best they've played all year right now and they haven't hit their peak yet so look out for them.

I really hope that Steelers safety Ryan Clark makes the right decision and sits out this game in Mile High. Clark has sickle cell trait and the thin air of Denver prevented oxygen from getting to his spleen the last time he played in Denver which forced him to have his spleen removed. Playing in this game is life-threatening for Clark even though he's been medically cleared to play. There's no reason to risk your life for football, especially in the regular season. Just watch the game and support your team Ryan, you'll get your chance next week.

Giants over Chargers
I don't expect this Giants slump to last any longer. It's a long road trip for San Diego and west coast teams usually struggle in cold games in the eastern time zone. My advice for the Giants: run the ball! You're facing a 27th-ranked Chargers run defense and have a hungry Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Run the ball down their throats and take some pressure off of Eli. If his foot is bothering him this will lighten the load and he can rest up on the bye next week.

Cardinals over Bears
The Cards are a difficult team to figure out right now. They win on one of those long west-to-east coast trips in New York and then forget to show up at home against Carolina. I'm going to take the minor upset here because I think the Cards defense will force Jay Cutler into some turnovers. Although the Cards have a -6 give/take ratio they have plenty of potential to force turnovers, as they did so effectively in the playoffs last season. I kinda hope I'm wrong on this one because I want the Niners to be in first. Keep an eye on Anquan Boldin who is a game-time decision for the Cards.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
Studs
Ryan Grant RB GB- Grant has struggled in this pass happy offense this season. But similar to a couple weeks ago in Cleveland, I expect the Packers to get a lead and go to the run if for no other reason then to keep Aaron Rodgers from being hit. I'm sure he's sore from last week and happy he doesn't have to see Jared Allen anymore in the regular season. I also like Rodgers to find Grant who's an underrated pass catcher, for a few completions.

Packers Defense- On the other side of this matchup you have QB Josh Freeman making his first NFL start for the Bucs. I'm sure the Packers are salivating at this opportunity. The Bucs have no dangerous weapons on offense so I think Green Bay will bring the kitchen sink at Freeman. It's very likely the Packers' defense will get a TD in this one.

Brandon Jacobs RB NYG- I've already noted how important it is for the Giants to run the ball against the Chargers. I like Jacobs to get his first 100-yard game on Sunday. Without Jamal Williams this Chargers run D is way too soft and Jacobs will take advantage of it

John Carlson TE SEA- After my fantasy draft this year I thought I was stacked at tight end with Carlson and Kellen Winslow. Turns out that the tight end position has killed me each and every week. I don't get it. Carlson has a great a rookie campaign and started out the season with a huge game against St. Louis (of course I started Winslow that week). If he doesn't take advantage of a great matchup with Detroit, then I'm giving up on him.


Matt Ryan QB ATL- After a season and a half in the young Ryan's career this is the first time he's lost two consecutive games. The Georgia Dome will be a welcoming site and a matchup against the Skins is even more welcoming. The Skins' D isn't a push over but I still think Ryan will have a very good game. Just get the ball to Roddy White as much as possible and let the man make plays. I'm sure seeing Michael Turner go off for 150 yards last week helps Ryan's confidence as well.

Duds
Tony Romo QB DAL- The ball-hawking Eagles defense stands in the way of Romo and I'm expecting Romo to make a mistake. Then the raucous Philly crowd gets in Romo's head...another mistake. All of a sudden we have deja vu of last year's debacle on the season finale in Philly.

Knowshon Moreno RB DEN- One thing that's consistent with Pittsburgh is that they always defend the run well. I don't see this rookie blowing up on such a disciplined defense. This will be a game where the quarterbacks have to make plays to get a win. And it's usually Correll Buckhalter who gets the catches out of the backfield.

Santonio Holmes WR PIT- Holmes has had a disappointing season since Week 1 and now he going to draw a good amount of coverage from Champ Bailey. I think Big Ben may look to Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, who's done a great job this year, more often than Holmes.

LaDainian Tomlinson RB SD- LT owners, please don't get all excited because he scored twice last week. He still only averaged 3 yards per carry in that game and hasn't gained over 71 yards in any game this year. I wouldn't start him against the Giants D this week.

Beanie Wells RB ARI- If the Cards are going beat the Bears like I predicted it'll be through the air. This passing offense looked poor last week and Warner wants to get all six of last week's turnovers out of his head. I don't see Beanie getting more than 12-15 touches against a Bears D that is good against the run.

OK its time to do, not die!

Who Will be the Beast of the East?

Hey all, I know it's been awhile since my last post but I've been under the weather and haven't felt up to writing anything. But I do want to invite you all to check out my friend Steve Pugh's website compughterratings.com where I am also currently posting blog entries covering major issues in the NFL. To go directly to my blog go to compughterratingsnfl.blogspot.com. I'll give you guys a sneak peak with my most recent post.

Well I think Brett Favre answered any critics and doubters (including me) after his four touchdown, no interception performance in Lambeau. Not only did he get his redemption, he has all but secured an NFC North title, given the Vikings a good chance for home field advantage and is one of the top MVP candidates. But the Packers fans still should be able to see that the organization made the right decision with Aaron Rodgers who had a great game and leads the NFL in passer rating. The only worry is whether he'll be able to stand on his own two feet after this season with all the hits he's taken.

But let's move on and talk about the NFC East

Just three weeks ago it looked as if we wouldn't have any question as to who would win this division. The 5-0 Giants didn't just look like the best team in the division...they appeared to be the class of the league. The Eagles were 3-1 at this point but hadn't beat anyone. The Cowboys were in crisis mode after losing in Denver and barely escaping Kansas City. But this is the NFL you know and NFL stands for Not For Long.

After three consecutive losses, it's the Giants who are now in crisis mode. In the three losses, the Giants have been outscored 112-61, with their secondary being absolutely torched. The once flawless Eli has thrown 6 INTs over this span and has many questioning whether the planter fasciitis in his foot is affecting his play. After an alarming loss to Oakland, the Eagles have rebounded with two good wins, including the 40-17 trouncing of the G-men last week. Donovan McNabb finally has the weaponry around him to dominate opposing defenses and DeSean Jackson is maybe the most dangerous player in the NFL. And now Tony Romo and the Cowboys are beginning to roll with their third consecutive win to tie Philly for the division lead as the two get ready to face each other Sunday night. The Giants...well they are in third place now and have a tough upcoming matchup with the Chargers. How quickly things have changed.

So things should be very interesting in the division that has been the most competitive in football over the past few years. Of course everyone wants to grill the Giants right now. In a "what have you done for me lately" league, three straight losses results in immense criticism and panic among the team's fans. But I'm not writing off the Giants just yet. Yes they have played poorly on both sides of the ball the past few weeks. They've given up too many big plays and don't seem to be getting as much pressure from their front four as they used to. But the injuries of Aaron Ross and Michael Boley have really handcuffed the Giants. The loss of Ross has especially hurt against three of the best passing teams in the league (New Orleans, Arizona, Philadelphia). But Boley should be back this week and Ross after next week's bye so the defense should be close to full strength.

As far as the offensive side is concerned, Eli always has these stretches of games where he's turnover-prone. I don't believe it's because of his foot injury. The Giants have fallen way behind early in two of the past three games (Philly, New Orleans), forcing the Giants to abandon the run. Not to mention the fact that in these two games, Eli had to deal with very smart, ball-hawking defenses as well as hostile crowds. I'm not trying to make excuses for Eli. He usually does well in these situations, But when things start going against him, they sometimes have a snowball effect and make him look really bad in certain games. I expect him to rebound at home against the Chargers and the Giants will still make the playoffs.

I really like the way the Eagles are playing right now and think they'll continue their success on offense. It's such a weapon when a team has the ability to score from anywhere on the field like the Eagles can. Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin are probably the most explosive duo of wideouts in the league. My only concern is that Andy Reid will be too pass happy (as he always is) and when he faces strong secondaries he'll stray away from the run too much. If this happens, those big plays could turn into turnovers. The Eagles need to prove that they can run the ball and not be so reliant on big plays to win games. Running the ball is the best way to protect leads anyway. But I like this Eagles team which has a great defense and special teams as well. They have a very good mix of experience and youth. I think it's between them and the Giants for the division title.

Then there's the Cowboys, who have flown under the radar the past couple weeks with impressive wins over the Falcons and Seahawks. All of a sudden the spotlight is back on them as they fight for the division lead with the Eagles this week. And there's even more media attention to America's team after Roy Williams makes some bone-headed comments about how the passes intended for him are always off target. He's just jealous of Miles Austin's success and realizes he isn't the #1 receiver anymore. But we know how Dallas usually does when they get the world's attention...they fold. I think it starts in Philly this week. Dallas is a team that is susceptible to the big play. I think down the stretch of this season, the team's lack of discipline and poor coaching will cost them a shot at winning the East. But I won't count them out of a wildcard spot. The NFC East has put three teams in the playoffs  two of the past three years. The two other teams with the best chance at a wildcard spot are Atlanta and Green Bay. But Dallas has already beat Atlanta and has a matchup with Green Bay next week in Lambeau. If they win that one they'd have the tiebreaker over the two and a good shot at stealing a wildcard spot.

It should be a showdown between the Giants and Eagles in this division race. Both have played all their easy games early on and have extremely tough remaining schedules. I like the Giants to squeak  it out for a few reasons. I think they will get revenge at home over Philly in Week 14 when their defense will be healthier. With Dallas coming to the Meadowlands and a road game against the pathetic Skins, the Giants should sweep the remainder of their divisional  schedule. And I think the Giants' ability to run the ball (if they stick with it) will give them the edge over Philly.

So despite what you've seen in recent weeks, don't count the Giants out. You know what NFL stands for.