Throughout Bill Belichick's career there has always been this aura of invincibility surrounding him. Common belief has said that you can't outsmart him. His play calling and decision-making has rarely been questioned, unless it was whether or not he was running up the score. And when a team beat his Pats, he usually found a way to adjust and return the favor the next time. But somewhere along the line the success of his team and his quarterback has gotten to his head and he thinks he can move the chains in any third or fourth down situation. Maybe last night's debacle in Indy will serve as a wake up call.
When I saw the Pats offense line up on that play the first thing that went through my mind as well as everyone else's mind had to be that they were just trying to draw the Colts' defense offside. I'm sitting there like "OK you're wasting your time time they won't jump...What?!! They're actually going through with it?". I originally thought Faulk's forward progress got him the first down on the catch. And even after watching the replay I still think he may have had the yardage necessary. Of course it's the Pats fault for not being able to challenge the play because they wasted all their timeouts just moments earlier.
Now after the play I immediately thought that Belichick was trying to catch the Colts defense (who may have been expecting Brady to draw them offside) sitting on their heels because they would be trying so hard not to jump offside. Maybe Belichick thought that this moment of hesitation would allow them to get the two yards needed for the first down. Even if Belichick had this mindset I don't think it would've been the right decision, but at least it would've been a nifty thought and I'd have more respect for the decision. But it's clear that this didn't even cross his mind. He never mentioned it in either of his press conferences. He just thought he could gain two yards and seal the victory. His over-confidence came back to bite him.
This time the mad scientist was in way over his head. The chances of getting that first down are 50/50 at best...and when you have a six-point lead with two minutes remaining, the result of the game shouldn't be determined by a coin flip. When you make a decision you have to figure in the consequences and Belichick just flat out ignored them. Going against Peyton Manning probably had something to do with the decision to go for it. But that's also the reason not to go for it. Giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 30 yard line is like cutting your wrists and jumping in a shark tank...it's all over. At least if you punt and he gets it at his own 30 yard line you give your defense (which played pretty well for most of the game) a chance. Even with Manning behind center, it's not easy to go 70 yards in 2 minutes without a timeout. I don't think anyone ever made Manning feel better about himself than Belichick did last night.
As much of a compliment as it was to Manning, Belichick's decision was even more of an insult to his defense. Coming in to that game the Pats had the second best scoring defense (Colts are first) in the league! Instead Belichick threw them under the bus, forcing them to try and stop Manning and Co. on a short field. If I were on that Pats defense, I'd be pretty ticked off.
The difference in this game was simply... clock management. The Colts were absolutely perfect in the way they used the clock during the 4th quarter. Down 34-21 with less than five minutes left they scored in just over two minutes. With all three timeouts left they were able to kick the ball away even though they lined up for an onside kick. They got the touchback which prevented any extra seconds from ticking off. And then they were able to call all three timeouts on defense before the two minute warning, giving them a chance even if the Pats had punted it away.
On the other side, the Pats were pathetic in managing the clock. They burned two timeouts on their four-and-out possession, one of those came before the first down play after the kick off. At the time it didn't seem like it mattered. It was almost like Al Michaels had a sixth sense when he mentioned how this could really hurt the Pats. How right he was. Wasting those timeouts eventually prevented the Pats from challenging the 4th-and-2 play. And they couldn't stop the clock when the Colts were about to score. This gave Brady no time to try and mount a final drive of his own. In a game where both teams were pretty much dead even on offense, defense and special teams, it was clock management that proved to be the difference.
This heartbreaking loss cost the Pats any chance at home field advantage in the playoffs. The already-infamous 4th-and-2 play has already been talked about and shown more than Brett Favre's miracle TD pass over the Niners and is the most talked about play since Santonio Holmes' game-winning TD catch in last year's Super Bowl. The criticism of Belichick is ringing out everywhere. But Bill is so oblivious to the fans, media and anything that isn't between the front and back cover of his playbook that I don't think it'll affect him one bit. And I bet you if given the chance, he'd make that same wrong decision again.
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