Saturday, October 3, 2009

Fantasy Friday

Well, technically it's Saturday now. But when do I ever make a post before midnight. Many questions will be answered in Week 4. Who will win the battle between the best pass offense (Saints) against the best pass defense (Jets)? Can the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC and take down the Pats on the road? Will T.O. have another ineffective game and completely explode? Will Brett Favre step up or fold in his first game against the Packers? And of course the big one, will my fantasy team improve to 4-0? I guess you guys could care less about that one.

Let's get right to it. Here are my picks for Week 4.

Steelers over Chargers
If you told anyone at the beginning of the season that the Steelers would be in third place with a 1-2 record they would just laugh at you and think you were from Baltimore. That's the situation the Steelers are in...the Bengals are ahead of them. Go figure! With the two road losses Pittsburgh returns home with a must-win game on their plate. Expect an air attack with the 2004 co-draftees going at it. Rivers and Roethlisberger have both seen their teams transform from run-first to pass-first teams and have handled it wonderfully. I like Big Ben to have the last laugh.

Ravens over Patriots
I'm putting my respect of the Ravens to the test in this one. Baltimore has looked dominant through three weeks but they have been susceptible to the passing game. Most notably, was their Week 2 performance when they allowed Philip Rivers throw for  436 yards. But now the Ravens have the ability to put up points with the Pats in case Brady gets the offense clicking this week. I think the Pats inability to score TDs in the redzone along with the Ravens bend-don't-break style of D will allow them to prevail.

Saints over Jets
I can't believe I'm doing this...picking against the Jets again. It's been killing me all season but I have to do it one more time. This matchup between the tough, gritty defense against the high-powered offense is being played in a setting that supports the latter. The Superdome is to the Saints what the Edward Jones Dome was to the Rams Greatest Show on Turf. It'll be too tough for the Jets to stop Drew Brees with a banged up secondary.

Cowboys over Broncos
Denver has had an easy go so far, facing bunnies Cleveland and Oakland in the last two weeks. And their win against Cincy shouldn't have happened. I said before that I don't like the Broncos to make it to the playoffs even in their weak division. The rough schedule starts this week and I expect them to fail their first test. The Broncos two-headed run game with Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno aren't going to have it that easy. The Panthers Jonathan Stewart and Deangelo Williams couldn't muster up much last week either. So with the game resting on Kyle Orton's shoulders I just don't think they'll be able to do it.

Packers over Vikings
Upset special baby! Brett Favre's first game against the Pack won't go in his favor. What many people don't realize is that the Packers have more to play for in this situation not the Vikings. This is just a typical matchup against the Packers (which is still big) for everyone on the Vikings not named Favre. But the Packers want revenge on the man that used to lead them just two years ago. After a tough win last week I expect the Vikings to be a bit tired and flat. We haven't seen the best out of the Packers or Aaron Rodgers yet. You know Rodgers has been waiting for this moment his whole career, a chance to take down the man he backed up for three years. I think he'll step up to the occasion

Fantasy Projections
Start Em
Glen Coffee- The 49ers are dedicated to the run no matter who's in there. If I were the running back they'd still give me 20+ carries a game. And against the Rams defense I probably would be productive. Coffee should have a solid game, especially if the Niners get up early and run the ball consistently.

Jason Campbell- As bad as the Redskins offense has been putting the ball in the endzone, people don't realize that Campbell is quietly playing fairly well. He has 46 fantasy points thus far and threw for 340 yds last week. I like him against the Bucs defense that has made every opposing QB look like a hall-of-famer.

Steve Slaton- I said that his time would come. Against Oakland's defense, this is when it'll come. This week, I like Houston's offense to be clicking on all cylinders for a change

Darren McFadden- If trends continue, McFadden is due for a career game. Houston is giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground! With Jamarcus Russell's passing prowess expect the Raiders to run early and often. I don't care if they are down by 30, just hand it off Jamarcus. Maybe just let McFadden permanently run the wildcat so we never see your useless body on the field again.

Wes Welker- Welker is a constant producer even against good, disciplined defenses like the Ravens who will focus on shutting down Moss. In a PPR league I like Welker to put up some solid numbers.

Carson Palmer- Remember the days when starting Palmer wasn't even a decision. Wow that seemed really long ago. Well I like him this week...of course I like anyone against the Browns.

Bench Em
Kellen Winslow- He can't be happy having Josh Johnson throw to him this week. If they weren't playing the Deadskins, I'd say the Bucs could be held to below 100 yards of total offense again. Winslow will be lucky to get a catch or two.

Pierre Thomas- Everybody wants to hop on the Pierre Thomas train after his return from injury and a good week against the Bills. I don't like him against the Jets' stingy D. With the secondary as banged up as it is you
can bet Brees will abandon the running game and attack them down the field.


Darren Sproles- Only yards he'll gain will be in the passing game. Also, his touches may be limited with the possible return of LT.

Matt Cassel- Cassel will be facing the league's best passing defense (Giants). The Giants held Byron Leftwich to just 22 yds passing last week and are feasting on turnovers with a +5 give/take ratio in three games. I think Cassel is good for a couple pickles and a fumble.

That's all for the picks and fantasy projections. Let's hope the Jets don't screw me again.

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